Relating traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe on the long term - 2016

A paper titled 'Relating traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe on the long term' co-authored by Costas Antoniou, George Yannis,  Eleonora Papadimitriou and Sylvain Lassarre is now published in Accident Analysis & Prevention. The objective of this research is to correlate traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe in the long term, with emphassis to turbulent financial situations. For this analysis, time series of the number of fatalities and GDP in 30 European countries for a period of 38 years (1975–2012) were exploited. This process relies on estimating long-term models (as captured by long term time-series models, which model each country separately). Based on these developments, utilizing state-of-the-art modelling and analysis techniques such as the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator (Pesaran), the long-term elasticity mean value equals 0.63, and is significantly different from zero for 10 countries only. When we take away the countries, where the number of fatalities is stationary, the average elasticity takes a higher value of nearly 1. This shows the strong sensitivity of the estimate of the average elasticity over a panel of European countries and underlines the necessity to be aware of the underlying nature of the time series, to get a suitable regression model.

ΠΗΓΗ: Ε.Μ.Π